SAS Construction Inc.
The construction market in 2024 should be better due to the fact we have a presidential election, and generally the market is a little better during election years.
Overall national dollar volume remains the same as 2023 with a possible 5% increase. In the second half of the year, private commercial work picks up. Labor shortages grow. Material deliveries in mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) are still stressed. Schedules get longer.
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Nathan Medcalf Freelance
The economy will drop into recession in early 2024. That year will also be plagued by higher interest rates and reduced spending, which will have a significant effect on the economy and on the construction industry.
The two biggest issues that will affect the construction industry are labor issues and supply chain issues.
According to a survey conducted by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), 91% of contractors reported having trouble filling positions. And the construction industry will need to hire approximately 546,000 additional workers to meet production demands in 2023-2024.
Construction input prices have increased significantly. According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), it has increased by 37.7% since 2020. Although construction input prices have moderated since last year, they still make numerous projects less attractive financially. The Build America, Buy America Act combined with higher interest rates will only exacerbate this problem.
The commercial, institutional and industrial buildings sector, which has so far experienced 19.7% growth in 2023 will experience more mundane growth (single digits) in 2024 —according to a July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel, leading construction industry economists agree.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, “The housing recession that began in 2022 ... could lead to a turning point for housing and the economy” continuing into 2024.
Expect warehouse and renovation construction to be up in 2024, but most construction sectors will see subdued growth that year.
Labor shortages will lead to greater construction technology adoption, especially when that technology decreases the number of bodies needed on a jobsite. Project documentation, project management and automation will be the technologies that drive the greatest adoption.
GCI Services Inc.
I predict that we will have a labor shift back into the larger construction companies from all the guys who jumped ship and became the next “chuck in a truck.” These individuals will learn that running a business isn’t as glamorous and easy as what they think it is. As the interest rates continue to remain high, so will the money flow remain low. These folks who found it easy to get work will struggle and return to established employers for a consistent income.
Twin City Roofing
- Increase in impact resistance (IR) shingle ratings on current designs industrywide.
- Breakthrough research and development (R&D) on safety and effectiveness of solar shingles from Tesla or GAF or CertainTeed.
- New construction home starts decrease 16.2 through June 2024.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) impacts on the construction industry through marketing-breakthrough.