Dodge Momentum Index Declines in April After Pullback in Commercial Planning

HAMILTON, N.J. (May 5, 2023) — The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, fell 5.1% in April to 180.9 (2000=100) from the revised March reading of 190.6. In April, the commercial component of the DMI fell 8.0%, and the institutional component improved 0.3%.

“On par with our expectations, the Dodge Momentum Index continued to recede in April, due to declining economic conditions and ongoing banking uncertainty.” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “Weaker commercial planning is driving the DMI’s decline, as it is more exposed to real-time economic changes than the largely publicly funded institutional segment.”

Commercial planning in April was pushed down by sluggish office, hotel and retail activity. Institutional planning remained flat, as weak education planning offset growth in health care and amusement projects. Year over year, the DMI remains 11% higher than in April 2022. The commercial and institutional components were up 7% and 17% respectively.

A total of 16 projects with a value of $100 million or more entered planning in April. The largest commercial projects included a $268 million warehouse in El Dorado Hills, California, and a $170 million hotel in New York City, New York. Leading the way on the institutional side were the $450 million Desert Diamond Casino in Glendale, Arizona, and the $350 million Global Energy Park research and development laboratory in Golden, Colorado.

The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.

Watch Associate Director of Forecasting Sarah Martin discuss April’s DMI here.