Currie & Brown’s Construction Certainty Index Reveals How Higher-Maturity Organizations Are Building Resilience Through Disruption

LONDON (Oct. 6, 2026) — Uncertainty has added an average 12.4% to construction project pipeline costs globally over the past year. Applied to forecast global construction spending, that equates to almost US$2 trillion in 2026.

The findings come from Currie & Brown’s annual Construction Certainty Index, based on a survey of more than 1,300 construction and infrastructure decision-makers across the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Confidence has fallen in meeting every project target. Fewer than half of organizations (46%) are now confident they can meet deadlines. Only 40% are confident about staying within budget — falls of 12 and 14 percentage points respectively from last year.

Material cost inflation has a high impact on project delivery for 70% of respondents, followed by energy price volatility (64%) and supply chain disruption (59%). Organizations expect most risks to intensify further.

The consequences are already visible. On average, respondents report that 30% of projects have been delayed over the past year and 27% descoped. A further 31% of potential projects have not started or progressed beyond planning because of uncertainty.

Dr. Alan Manuel, group chief executive officer at Currie & Brown, said: “Organizations can’t afford to lurch from one crisis to the next or simply wait for calmer conditions. Those that are resilient to uncertainty share common characteristics. They’re investing in the people, technology and data that enable them to gain an earlier, clearer view of where they are exposed — and the judgment and skills they need to take action.”

The research identifies a distinct group of “higher-maturity” organizations that follow this approach. Representing 32% of respondents, they invest strategically in AI, digital technology, data analytics, sustainability, skills and training.

These organizations are considerably more confident of meeting their targets. Almost six in ten (58%) are confident they will meet project deadlines, compared with 41% of the rest of the sample. They also experience fewer severe impacts from uncertainty.

Delivering through disruption: Currie & Brown Construction Certainty Index explores the drivers and impact of uncertainty and how organizations can build resilience.

Currie & Brown is a global project management, cost management and advisory services firm. We help clients deliver with certainty across every sector and stage of the project life cycle. Visit curriebrown.com.