FMI Forecast for 2014 in the Q3-2013 Construction Outlook Report

RALEIGH, N.C. (September 16, 2013) – FMI (www.fminet.com), a provider of management consulting and investment banking* to the engineering and construction industry, released its Q3-2013 Construction Outlook. The markets continue to shift, reducing annual Construction-Put-In-Place predictions to $909.6 billion, down nearly $4 billion from previous predictions. Early forecasts for 2014 show annual CPIP continues moderate growth of 7 percent, rising to $977 billion.

Major market predictions include:

• Residential Construction — FMI continues to forecast traction in residential construction. However, the growth is expected to taper off to 12 percent in 2014. Total predicted residential forecast is $379.6 billion, compared with the $338.2 billion for 2013.
• Commercial Construction — The current forecast calls for a 5 percent increase in 2014. Although retail sales as of June 2013 were up 5.7 percent during the previous year, new bricks and mortar retail space along with commercial other construction growth will remain slow to recover.
• Healthcare —With business owners nervous about the costs of the Affordable Healthcare Act, predictions are slightly unstable. Although the healthcare construction forecast slipped 1 percent since last year, it is still expected to grow 6 percent in 2014 to $44 billion.
• Educational — The increase in residential construction and tax revenues will help bring this market back in many areas of the country. Due to budget cuts for government spending at all levels, the national market will rise only slightly in 2014 to 4% over 2013 levels.
• Manufacturing — The resurgence of the automotive industry is a big boost to manufacturing as is the continuing explorations and mining for shale oil and gas. However, manufacturing construction is expected to drop 2 percent by year-end 2013 before returning to 4 percent growth in 2014. 
• Highway and Street — Passage of MAP-21 calls for nearly $38 billion for the fiscal year 2014 for the Federal-Aid Highway Program. This is a major contributor to the CPIP predications of nearly $80 billion for 2014. 

While there is no singular reason for change in these markets, there are a few economic concerns that touch all of them.

• Potential conflicts with Syria
• Downsizing of government and large companies
• The implementation of Affordable Healthcare Act 

To download a copy of the full report, click here. For reprint permission or to schedule an interview with the author, please contact Sarah Avallone at 919.785.9221 or [email protected].
 
 *Investment banking services provided by FMI Capital Advisors Inc., a registered broker-dealer and wholly owned subsidiary of FMI.