Evaluating Estimators—What you can learn from the movie “Moneyball”
Editor’s Note: This is the first in a 3-part series titled “How to Develop a World Championship Team,” that examines how to evaluate estimators; part two will discuss criteria for project managers; and part three will explore how to select superintendents and foremen.
In 2002, Oakland Athletics faced a conundrum. Player salaries had ballooned to astronomical levels. Plus, large market franchises with a seemingly endless fan base, lucrative television rights and merchandise outlets—such as the New York Yankees, New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox—possessed the ability to win over signature players.
Smaller market teams had to be more frugal with their expenses and balance their payroll against lower income. In many cases, talented players that developed quickly and became media darlings in these small markets moved to the mega-franchises for their payday. Oakland qualified as one of these small markets. Lacking the financial means, the A’s had to use a non-traditional method of evaluating talent.
Billy Beane, the general manager and minority owner of Oakland, enlisted the services of Paul DePodesta, a Harvard graduate. (In the film, the character Peter Brand was created as a composite of DePodesta and Beane's deputies in Oakland.)
Baseball scouts typically relied on intuition and baseball acumen to grade talent as the talent entered the major leagues from high school or college. In most cases, these talented ball players expected higher salaries for an unproven product.
